So Cal Multifamily Sales Pulse - January 28, 2024 - February 3, 2024

Disclaimer: All information contained herein is obtained from sources believed reliable. We have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used are for example only. We make no claim(s) as to the accuracy or reliability of the information presented. If you wish for us to analyze your specific property or situation please feel free to call or email us anytime.


Here's What's Happening In The Market, Here’s What This Means For You

Recent CRE Trends Don’t Bode Well for 2024
Things might turn around with lower interest rates, but 2023 Q4 was a belly flop.

Rental Application Fraud Costs Landlords Millions
Respondents reported they were forced to write off an average of $4.2 million

Pending Home Sales Up By 8.3%
The Pending Home Sales Index, NAR’s forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – increased to 77.3 in December. Year-over-year, pending transactions were up 1.3%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

Borrowing Our Way to Prosperity?
When I was growing up, my stepdad had a “rich” friend. The guy lived in a massive house. He owned several fancy sports cars. He was always dressed to the nines. He was among the first to buy the latest, coolest gadgets. As it turns out, he wasn’t rich.
The Fed Lost Billions and You're Going to Pay for It!
The Federal Reserve recorded a record loss of $114.3 billion in 2023, and you (the American taxpayer) are on the hook. The last time the Fed ran a net operating loss was 1915. The loss was a direct result of the Fed’s interest rate hikes to fight price inflation.

High Interest Rates Will Continue to Challenge Builders This Year
About three-fourths of survey respondents list it as No. 1.

CRE Investors Prepare to Deal As They Wait for the Recovery
Most buyers are expected to be developers, private equity funds, real estate funds, and REITs.

Fitch: Multifamily CMBS Delinquencies To Double In 2024
Heightened levels of new supply, slowing revenue growth and higher expenses will challenge apartments.

What Apartment Leaders Need To Know For 2024
It’s anyone’s guess what will happen in the next 12 months, but these insights from multifamily pros can help bring the year into focus.

Inflation Has Slowed. Now The Federal Reserve Faces Expectations For Rate Cuts
The economy is still growing at a healthy paceconsumers keep spending and the unemployment rate is near a half-century low.

The Office Market Faces a Wave of Short Sales Amidst Dwindling Capital and Patience
The expected deluge of deals didn’t materialize as office property owners managed to retain their assets. This scenario is changing rapidly.

Investors Still Waiting for Bargain Multifamily Deals
Also, a generation gap within the investor community could influence which groups are most active in 2024

The Market's Bottom is Getting Closer
A lot of money is getting ready to start buying, which is one indication.

Mortgage Rates Expected to Drop to 5.5% in 2024
The rate on a 30-year, fixed mortgage is expected to fall to 5.5% by Dec. 31, according to the median from 236 respondents. 

S&P Case-Shiller: Home Prices Up, But Deceleration Is Taking Root
Home prices were up in November, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index data report, although there was growing evidence of a price deceleration in several major markets.

Could the Commercial Real Estate Sector Kick Off the Next Financial Crisis?
Could the commercial real estate market be the next thing to pop in this bubble economy? According to a recent working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the answer is yes.

CRE Investors Prepare to Deal As They Wait for the Recovery
Most buyers are expected to be developers, private equity funds, real estate funds, and REITs

Who's Right About CRE?
Experts are coming down on opposite sides of how much trouble property is facing.

CRE Experts See “Higher for Longer” Rates Lasting a Little Longer
In December 2023, raised the hope that reductions in the federal funds rate could begin as early as March—a hope that is now giving way to the increasing likelihood that the reductions will begin later in the year. 

Key Takeaways From The Fed’s Decision To Hold Rates Steady
The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent,

CMBS Delinquencies Rise Nearly 10% in January
The delinquency rate among U.S. CMBS climbed meaningfully in January from December, rising almost 10% to 4.61%.

Apartment Defaults To Double This Year, Fitch Predicts
A major ratings agency is predicting that the U.S. multifamily market is on the verge of a surge in loan defaults.

The Banks Are Not Okay
Markets are recognizing how precarious conditions for banks can be.

Green Street Releases ‘2024 Sector Outlooks’ For Commercial Real Estate
The eight reports offer deep market-level insight and analysis of the apartment, industrial, office, strip center, mall, self-storage, senior housing, and single-family rental sectors.

More Problems in the Regional Banking System: Where There's Fire There's Smoke
The mainstream consensus is that the Federal Reserve successfully raised interest rates, slayed the inflation monster, and did it without breaking anything in the economy. 

 

Orange County

Live MLS Link PDF Link

Orange County Closed Sales - MikeLembeck.com

Avg. Cap Rate: 4.47%
Avg. Gross Rent Multiplier: 14.63
5
Closed Sales Last Week
89
Closed Sales - Average Days on Market
$3,889,000
Closed Sales - Average Sales Price
1
Transactions Sold At or Above Asking Price
2
Financed Transactions Last Week
3
All Cash Transactions Last Week
2
2-4 Unit Transactions Last Week
3
5+ Unit Transactions Last Week

16
New Listings Last Week
7
Months of Inventory
170
Total Number of Active Listings
$599,345,765
Active Listings, Dollar Volume
7
Active Under Contract Last Week
4
Pending Listings Last Week
7
Expired Listings Last Week

Southern California

Live MLS Link PDF Link

Southern California Closed Sales - MikeLembeck.com

Avg. Cap Rate: 4.63%
Avg. Gross Rent Multiplier: 14.15
2
Closed Sales Last Week
8
Closed Sales - Average Days on Market
$1,064,500
Closed Sales - Average Sales Price
2
Transactions Sold At or Above Asking Price
1
Financed Transactions Last Week
1
All Cash Transactions Last Week
1
2-4 Unit Transactions Last Week
1
5+ Unit Transactions Last Week

13
New Listings Last Week
11
Months of Inventory
133
Total Number of Active Listings
$432,079,072
Active Listings, Dollar Volume
1
Active Under Contract Last Week
4
Pending Listings Last Week
7
Expired Listings Last Week

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