So Cal Multifamily Sales Pulse - November 3, 2024 - November 9, 2024

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Here's What's Happening In The Market, Here’s What This Means For You

Economic Indicators Remain Positive Despite Record Household Debt
If people get too far out over their skis by borrowing too much money, the economy could hit a wall.
CRE Posts Sizeable Gains in Q3
Sales volume for office and multifamily grew, unlike retail and industrial.
Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae See Higher Delinquency Rates in Q3
The change for Freddie Mac was moderate; Fannie Mae saw higher increases.
Foreclosures Pick Up, Starting With The Largest Landlords
As more loans approach maturity and liquidity returns to the market, foreclosure actions are on the rise. 
Fed Cuts Haven’t Trickled Down To Real Estate. Some Investors Aren’t Waiting
Home mortgage rates are rising and commercial debt rates are stagnant, hovering around 4% at the end of October. 
West Coast Cap Rates Fall
Demand for well-located properties is rising, but inventory remains low.

Office, Multifamily Sectors Lead CRE’s Q3 Growth
U.S. CRE enjoyed a notable Q3 recovery, thanks to higher sales volumes in office and multifamily, while industrial and hospitality were mixed.
Multifamily Absorption Hits Second-Highest Level on Record
However, apartment rents remain flat.
El-Erian Warns: Don't Expect Prices to Fall, Despite Cooling Inflation
If they did, it could be a bigger economic problem than people realize.
CMBS Delinquency Rate Nears 6%
The delinquency rate for office jumps by more than 100 basis points.
Politics Aside, the US Economy Is Holding Strong
Real GDP will grow regardless of which party is in charge in D.C., writes economist Peter Linneman.

Apartment Demand Rebounds, Vacancies Finally Fall
After years of rising vacancies and record construction, apartment demand is growing—and it could grant landlords more pricing power by 2025.
Banks Expect More CRE Lending in 2025 as Rates Fall
With interest rates falling, banks are eyeing a potential return to form for CRE lending in 2025 after two years of reduced activity.
CRE Readies For Realignment As Trump Surges Back To White House
Based on his tariffs, immigration position and tax cuts — those could potentially be inflationary pressures that the market clearly doesn't have.
Apartment Vacancy Dips As Demand For Rental Housing Outpaces Record Supply
For the first time in more than two years, U.S. apartments are filling up again.
California Proposition 33 Rent-Control Measure Defeated at the Polls
It would have overturned the longstanding Costa-Hawkins law, which bars localities from capping rent on vacant units, single-family homes and apartments built after Feb. 1, 1995. 
Fed Cuts Rates for 2nd Time
Multifamily execs saw the move coming, but its impact may take time to emerge.

USC Casden Forecast Calls for SoCal Rent Increases to Continue
Forecast predicts rent increases for the next two years throughout the region. 
Interest Rate Uncertainty Grows After Election
Much depends on what a Trump White House does.
CRE Loan Re-Defaults Hit Decade-High Levels
"They are kicking the can down the road."
Banks Under Pressure as CRE Double Defaults Rise
As “extend and pretend” loan modifications increase, U.S. banks face more exposure to defaults in their commercial real estate loans.
Store Closures Surge, But Retail Demand Remains Strong
U.S. store closures hit their highest level since 2020, driven by rising bankruptcies and operational pressures, yet demand is still high.
How Will Trump’s Victory Affect The Multifamily Industry?
President-elect Donald Trump has said he aims to cut housing regulations and reduce mortgage rates, but details are scarce.

Orange County

Live MLS Link PDF Link

Orange County Closed Sales - MikeLembeck.com

Avg. Cap Rate: 4.44%
Avg. Gross Rent Multiplier: 14.74
13
Closed Sales Last Week
44
Closed Sales - Average Days on Market
$1,856,106
Closed Sales - Average Sales Price
2
Transactions Sold At or Above Asking Price
7
Financed Transactions Last Week
6
All Cash Transactions Last Week
12
2-4 Unit Transactions Last Week
1
5+ Unit Transactions Last Week

10
New Listings Last Week
6
Months of Inventory
241
Total Number of Active Listings
$881,368,619
Active Listings, Dollar Volume
5
Active Under Contract Last Week
1
Pending Listings Last Week
4
Expired Listings Last Week

Southern California

Live MLS Link PDF Link

Southern California Closed Sales - MikeLembeck.com

Avg. Cap Rate: 4.63%
Avg. Gross Rent Multiplier: 14.16
7
Closed Sales Last Week
27
Closed Sales - Average Days on Market
$1,282,071
Closed Sales - Average Sales Price
1
Transactions Sold At or Above Asking Price
7
Financed Transactions Last Week
0
All Cash Transactions Last Week
6
2-4 Unit Transactions Last Week
1
5+ Unit Transactions Last Week

6
New Listings Last Week
8
Months of Inventory
169
Total Number of Active Listings
$471,140,535
Active Listings, Dollar Volume
6
Active Under Contract Last Week
2
Pending Listings Last Week
0
Expired Listings Last Week

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