Signs We Are In a Rolling Recession
There are indicators of slowing employment growth in interest rate-sensitive industries. Is there a recession coming? For all those asking, RealPage says there are signs of one already here —...
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What If the Neutral Interest Rate is Higher Than We Think?
There’s an argument that the so-called neutral rate has grown, which would mean expect a new normal. First, the semi brighter side. Reuters recently surveyed 108 economists to se...
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Consumers Expect Higher Inflation, Home Prices
Consumers are bracing for higher inflation along with higher home prices in the near term, according to the latest Survey of Consumer Expectations released Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank...
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Watch for These Signs of Recession As the Fed Keeps Rates Elevated
By aiming for a “soft landing,” the Fed could do some damage. A couple of weeks ago, the Fed did as was expected and kept the overnight rate unchanged. No surprise there. The Fed cited e...
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Finally the Fed Says Something Positive About CRE
"I view CRE risks currently as sizable but manageable." Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, who recently became chair of the central bank’s Committee on Financial Stability, told the Brookings ...
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More Hints That the Fed Might Not Cut Rates At All This Year
There’s been questions for a while by some at the Fed whether cutting rates would be wise. The Federal Reserve usually speaks as one. But it’s a big organization with many individuals, in...
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Hard Landing Scenario Becomes More Real Amid Lower Productivity Numbers
Lower productivity can translate into higher product costs and, therefore, more inflation. With eyes on jobs, wages, and inflation, it’s easy to forget how much impact productivity — the ...
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Apartment Starts Plunge in March
The drop gives some insight into when the excess supply might start to taper. Both multifamily and single-family starts dropped in March from their February levels, according to the seasonally adjust...
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CMBS Delinquencies Surge in April, Led by Office
The Trepp CMBS Delinquency rate surged in April 2024 after posting a slight decline in March. Overall, the delinquency rate increased 40 basis points to 5.07% for the highest level since Septembe...
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$38B in Peril as US Office Buildings Face Historic Defaults
The U.S. office market is experiencing turmoil as over $38B of office buildings are at risk of loan defaults, foreclosures, or distress, the highest level since 2012. Mounting default...
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