So Cal Multifamily Sales Pulse - January 7, 2024 - January 13, 2024

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Here's What's Happening In The Market, Here’s What This Means For You

Maybe Cities Aren’t Headed for a Doom Loop
Outmigration in gateway markets is slowing but still significant.

Apartment Supply to Thin Out Dramatically After This Year
Completions totaled 440,000 in 2023, boosting supply to the highest levels since 1987

Online Shopping Hits New Record During 2023 Holiday Season
For the first time, mobile shopping passed desktop.

Jobs: You Might Want to Pay Attention to the Revisions
For December, the BLS reported 216,000 new jobs. This was far higher than the 170,000 new jobs projected and resulted in the aforementioned knee-jerk reaction from the markets. And then there were the revisions.

US Consumer Debt Soared To New Heights In The Run-Up To The Holiday Season
US consumers did not rein in their spending this past holiday season, and now have near-record-breaking debt balances to show for it.

U.S. Rents Dropped for Third Straight Month
The reasons behind the decline are well known to the apartment industry.

Investment Sales Continue Their Decline
Industrial and office categories dropped the most.

CMBS Delinquencies Expected to Reach 4.5% This Year
Office will top its historical peak in 2025 while self-storage seems the safest bet.

California Again Ranks First for Resident Exodus
For the fourth year in a row, California reflected the largest net loss of one-way movers in the annual U-Haul Growth Index, while Texas netted the largest number of move-ins in one-way U-Haul equipment in 2023.

As California Evictions Boom, Whether Tenants Get Lawyers Depends On Where They Live
San Francisco provides all tenants facing eviction access to an attorney. Across the Bay, in Contra Costa County, it’s a different story.

4 Multifamily Trends To Watch In 2024
Apartment operators will see new supply temper rent growth this year, among other challenges.

U.S. Office Vacancies Reach Record High
An average of 19.6% of office space in major U.S. cities wasn’t leased as of fourth-quarter 2023,  That’s up from 18.8% a year earlier.

California Homebuying Crashed In 2023. What’s Next?
Let's make one prediction about California’s housing market in 2024. The number of purchases will increase. Could sales go any lower after crashing into history’s basement this year?

Refinancing to be Much Harder for CMBS This Year
Refinancing problems are one of the reasons why delinquencies are expected to hit 4.5% this year.

Investment Sales Will Reach Pre-Pandemic Levels This Year, Says Expert
Resiliency, falling interest rates, and “dry powder” are reasons given.

Class B Apartments Outperforming All Categories
Improved consumer confidence, lower inflation and lack of a recession is fueling demand for these assets.

Distress Looms As LA And OC See $21B In CMBS Loans Come Due In 2024
Almost 60% of the debt is already watchlisted or in special servicing

CRE Lenders See Market Stabilizing as 2024 Progresses
Commercial and multifamily mortgage originators continue to experience an unsettled market for borrowing and lending but anticipate those conditions will stabilize over the course of 2024.

Top 12 Multifamily Predictions for 2024
Experts deliver their detailed expectations, from adaptive reuse to Gen Z.

California Rents Dipped 1% Last Year, First Drop Since 2020
California’s renters got a mild breather in 2023. Nationally, rents fell 0.2%.

Are Housing Inventory Levels On The Rise?
Nearly half of the nation’s 50 largest metro areas record year-over-year increases with their housing inventory levels last month, according to new data from Realtor.com.

Consumer Debt Tops $5 Trillion for First Time Ever
Consumer debt topped $5 trillion for the first time ever in November as Americans continue to kick the financial can down the road as they cope with rising prices using credit cards with soaring interest rates.

Maturing Loans Will Bring More Clarity to Capital Markets
A host of factors may continue to act as a drag – rather than a boost – to the markets though.

Housing Boom? Purchase Applications Start 2024 With A Jump
Applications for home-purchase mortgages in the US increased last week by the most since June as borrowing costs hovered near a seven-month low.

Orange County Leads US Apartment Rent Growth Heading Into 2024
Stronger Gains Forecasted for Surrounding Southern California Markets

Another Analyst Drops US Recession Forecast
But the new inflation numbers could mean no interest rate cut until after the first quarter.

Foreclosure Filings Up 10% In 2023
Foreclosure filings were reported on 357,062 residential properties in 2023, according to a new report from ATTOM. This represents a 10% increase from 2022 and a 136% spike from 2021.

 

Orange County

Live MLS Link PDF Link

Orange County Closed Sales - MikeLembeck.com

Avg. Cap Rate: 4.47%
Avg. Gross Rent Multiplier: 14.63
3
Closed Sales Last Week
8
Closed Sales - Average Days on Market
$2,105,000
Closed Sales - Average Sales Price
2
Transactions Sold At or Above Asking Price
1
Financed Transactions Last Week
2
All Cash Transactions Last Week
3
2-4 Unit Transactions Last Week
0
5+ Unit Transactions Last Week

10
New Listings Last Week
5
Months of Inventory
149
Total Number of Active Listings
$552,149,079
Active Listings, Dollar Volume
4
Active Under Contract Last Week
4
Pending Listings Last Week
0
Expired Listings Last Week

Southern California

Live MLS Link PDF Link

Southern California Closed Sales - MikeLembeck.com

Avg. Cap Rate: 4.63%
Avg. Gross Rent Multiplier: 14.16
3
Closed Sales Last Week
23
Closed Sales - Average Days on Market
$985,000
Closed Sales - Average Sales Price
1
Transactions Sold At or Above Asking Price
2
Financed Transactions Last Week
1
All Cash Transactions Last Week
2
2-4 Unit Transactions Last Week
1
5+ Unit Transactions Last Week

14
New Listings Last Week
11
Months of Inventory
128
Total Number of Active Listings
$387,877,085
Active Listings, Dollar Volume
3
Active Under Contract Last Week
2
Pending Listings Last Week
1
Expired Listings Last Week

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