So Cal Multifamily Sales Pulse - February 25, 2024 - March 2, 2024

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Here's What's Happening In The Market, Here’s What This Means For You

Fed’s Waller Wants More Evidence Inflation Is Cooling Before Cutting Interest Rates
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday he will need “at least another couple more months” of data before inflation is falling enough to warrant interest rate cuts.

Median Rents Down For Sixth Straight Month
Median rents in January were down for the sixth consecutive month, with year-over-year prices dropping by 0.3%.

New Report Finds Spike In Commercial Real Estate Foreclosures
A new data report from ATTOM is highlighting a spike in commercial foreclosures over the last four years, from a low of 141 in May 2020 to the current figure of 635 in January.

The Fed Minutes: Warning About The Housing Bubble
The Fed warns that "valuations across a range of markets appeared high relative to fundamentals".

Fortress Co-CEO Sees Commercial Real Estate Stress Leading to More Bank Failures
The fallout from the commercial real estate market downturn is poised to trigger a wave of bank failures and forced mergers.

CRE CLO Distress Rates More Than Quadruple in Last 12 Months
From 1.4% to 8.6% between January 2023 and January 2024, says CRED iQ.

Corporations Slow Price Hikes Due to Consumer Habits, Need to Assist Biden
'Firms are telling us that price sensitivity is very much higher now...'

Economists Revise Projections For US Growth This Year
It’s another of many different takes on what might happen ahead.

A Significant Share of Banks Are Overexposed to CRE
A third of commercial banks have CRE exposures of at least three times their resources.

Multifamily Weakness Continues to Grab Attention
Delinquency rate fluctuations in the property type are growing.

This Analyst Says a CRE-Driven Financial Meltdown Is Unlikely
CMBS delinquency rates are generally low compared to prior crises.

Distress Soared 440% In A Key Corner Of The Commercial Real Estate Debt Market In The Last Year
Loans packaged into commercial real estate CLOs saw a big uptick in distress. Multifamily and office borrowers accounted for the brunt of the distress. 

SEC Eyes Commercial Real Estate Exposure, Questions 4 Banks
Commercial real estate exposure at US banks has appeared on the radar of the SEC, which has reached out to at least four institutions for additional disclosures on their activity in the sector.

Economists Are Lowering Recession Forecasts on US Job Growth Expectations
The economy is seen expanding at a 2.1% annualized rate this year — up from the 1.5% expected last month — amid stronger household demand and government spending.

A Hard-Landing Recession Is Guaranteed As The Full Impact Of Fed Rate Hikes Have Yet To Hit The Economy, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist Says

Wells Fargo CFO Calls Commercial Real Estate A ‘Long Movie’
Current efforts to ease pressures in the commercial real estate market as a “long movie” that is just “a little past the opening credits.”

MSCI: Apartment Sales Drop 45%
Prices also fell in January, but the pace of decline is slowing.

Fed Unintended Consequences May Put More Pressure on Regional Banks
Important parts of the banking system are getting hit harder over CRE loans.

Multifamily Starts Predicted to Drop 20% This Year
Multifamily starts totaled 472,000 units in 2023, down 14% compared to the previous year.

Distressed CLO Increases Nearly 400% from Year-End 2022
The distress rate ended 2023 at 5.4%, compared to 1.4% at year-end 2022.

Q4 GDP Revised Slightly Downward; Consumer Spending Moves Higher
The BEA said the downward revision to GDP was due primarily to a downgrade to private inventory investment.

Freddie Mac Sees Jump in Serious Multifamily Delinquencies
Multifamily has become a worry. The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January FOMC meeting mentioned multifamily by name with office as a real estate concern.

Strong Job Market Boosts Prospects for Multifamily Rent Growth
The strong job reports and improving consumer confidence have pushed the expected mild recession to the end of 2024 or beginning of 2025.

Orange County Named The Hardest Place To Find An Apartment In California
A new report shows that moving to Orange County is becoming nearly impossible. 

Orange County

Live MLS Link PDF Link

Orange County Closed Sales - MikeLembeck.com

Avg. Cap Rate: 4.44%
Avg. Gross Rent Multiplier: 14.74
11
Closed Sales Last Week
61
Closed Sales - Average Days on Market
$2,198,909
Closed Sales - Average Sales Price
1
Transactions Sold At or Above Asking Price
9
Financed Transactions Last Week
2
All Cash Transactions Last Week
7
2-4 Unit Transactions Last Week
4
5+ Unit Transactions Last Week

13
New Listings Last Week
6
Months of Inventory
184
Total Number of Active Listings
$635,610,279
Active Listings, Dollar Volume
4
Active Under Contract Last Week
4
Pending Listings Last Week
7
Expired Listings Last Week

Southern California

Live MLS Link PDF Link

Southern California Closed Sales - MikeLembeck.com

Avg. Cap Rate: 4.63%
Avg. Gross Rent Multiplier: 14.13
7
Closed Sales Last Week
85
Closed Sales - Average Days on Market
$1,257,829
Closed Sales - Average Sales Price
0
Transactions Sold At or Above Asking Price
6
Financed Transactions Last Week
1
All Cash Transactions Last Week
6
2-4 Unit Transactions Last Week
1
5+ Unit Transactions Last Week

7
New Listings Last Week
10
Months of Inventory
122
Total Number of Active Listings
$436,673,738
Active Listings, Dollar Volume
4
Active Under Contract Last Week
2
Pending Listings Last Week
6
Expired Listings Last Week

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