So Cal Multifamily Sales Pulse - August 25, 2024 - August 31, 2024

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Here's What's Happening In The Market, Here’s What This Means For You

Monthly Mortgage Payment Has Declined for the First Time in Four Years
House hunters are showing renewed interest in the market.
Household Ownership May Be Significantly Overstated
Apartment List suggests that the commonly used metric confuses living at home and owning that home.
Powell Gives Thumb's Up on Rate Cuts
Barring some terrible surprise to everyone, cuts will start in September. But how large and for how long is still a guess.
CRE Gets Ready for Imminent Rate Cut
Analysts weigh in on how the Fed’s widely anticipated move will impact the industry.
Is the CRE Market Ready to Turn?
While the Fed hasn’t outright said “yes, we’re cutting rates in September,”  Wall Street is already responding, with the 10-year Treasury falling below 4%. 
When Demand Is There But Prices Are Not
Whether that's high interest rates and demand not keeping up with supply, or fears of recession, there are a lot of uncertainties that remain currently.
Distress: Not Widespread Yet But on the Rise
Hospitality was the asset class most impacted by distress activity at 7.2% of total sales.
Fed, Businesses, and Others See Recession Possibilities Fade
But some fear that people could get too confident.
2024 CMBS Delinquency Rates
The Trepp CMBS Delinquency rate continued ticking up in July 2024. Overall, the delinquency rate increased 8 basis points to 5.43 percent.
Where are Cap Rates Headed?
I expect the federal funds rate to drop 1.0%-1.5% this year and 1.5%-2.0% in 2025.
Commercial Real Estate Distress Up, But Not Widespread 
Yet
Despite concerns, distressed CRE sales remain below pre-pandemic levels, though signs indicate a potential hospitality and office rebound.
CMBS Distress Rate Rises 32 BPs in August
In August, CMBS loans totaling $1.7 billion were newly added to the distress rate, of which 64.6% was due to imminent or actual maturity default. 
Major Banks Report Surge in Noncurrent Commercial Real Estate Loans
Regulators Take Notice of Growing Amount of Financing Behind in Payments, Notably Office Lending.
Falling Mortgage Rates Have Yet to Improve Home Sales, With Buyers Uncertain About NAR Settlement, Election
Pending home sales posted their biggest decline in nearly a year, despite the median U.S. housing payment dropping to its lowest level in five months. 
Biden Administration Keeps Extending Renter Friendly Efforts
The newest GSE requirements raise the question of what comes next.
Typical Home Down Payment Reaches Record $68K
Nearly three in five homebuyers put down more than 10% of the purchase price.
IRR Mid-Year Report Sees CRE Industry Reaching a Turning Point
We are seeing a stabilization in property prices and a modest increase in values this year.

Orange County

Live MLS Link PDF Link

Orange County Closed Sales - MikeLembeck.com

Avg. Cap Rate: 4.44%
Avg. Gross Rent Multiplier: 14.74
14
Closed Sales Last Week
54
Closed Sales - Average Days on Market
$1,702,036
Closed Sales - Average Sales Price
4
Transactions Sold At or Above Asking Price
14
Financed Transactions Last Week
0
All Cash Transactions Last Week
13
2-4 Unit Transactions Last Week
1
5+ Unit Transactions Last Week

13
New Listings Last Week
8
Months of Inventory
273
Total Number of Active Listings
$1,001,599,140
Active Listings, Dollar Volume
9
Active Under Contract Last Week
5
Pending Listings Last Week
4
Expired Listings Last Week

Southern California

Live MLS Link PDF Link

Southern California Closed Sales - MikeLembeck.com

Avg. Cap Rate: 4.63%
Avg. Gross Rent Multiplier: 14.15
10
Closed Sales Last Week
38
Closed Sales - Average Days on Market
$1,750,498
Closed Sales - Average Sales Price
6
Transactions Sold At or Above Asking Price
9
Financed Transactions Last Week
1
All Cash Transactions Last Week
6
2-4 Unit Transactions Last Week
4
5+ Unit Transactions Last Week

10
New Listings Last Week
8
Months of Inventory
166
Total Number of Active Listings
$489,569,699
Active Listings, Dollar Volume
2
Active Under Contract Last Week
3
Pending Listings Last Week
2
Expired Listings Last Week

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