So Cal Multifamily Sales Pulse - January 14, 2024 - January 20, 2024

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Here's What's Happening In The Market, Here’s What This Means For You

YOY Rent Growth Falls To Lowest Non-Pandemic Level Since 2010
The national average rent is down $17 over the past five months, according to Yardi Matrix.

Will 2024 See More Apartment Deals?
Falling rates and still-stressed owners could put more properties on the market this year.

What Last Week’s Inflation Report Reveals About the State of CRE
How it might change the Fed’s interest rate cuts is only the beginning of the story.

Foreclosure Auctions Flop — Leaving Lenders Stuck With Properties
Bidders are few as high opening prices and cashier’s check payment discourage buyers.

Not 'Even Worth Giving Them Our Name': Why Most Foreclosure Auctions Don't Actually Result In Sales
One of the biggest roadblocks to anyone actually buying a high-dollar property at auction is the fact that buyers are usually required to show up with a cashier’s check for the full amount they intend to pay.

There’s Finally Hope For The Commercial Real Estate Market
Soaring borrowing costs and plunging prices walloped the global commercial-property market last year. Now, more clarity around values and an urgent need to address looming debt maturities are expected to spark more deals.

LA Tenants Take “Cash For Keys” Buyouts To Exit Rent-Controlled Units
Report finds 5,000 agreements filed from 2019 to 2023, with average value of $25K
Rate Cuts May Not Be Enough to Drive CRE Prices Higher
The level of interest rates may no longer be the one-factor model for CRE prices.
The CPI Lie! Price Inflation Is Even Worse Than Advertised
According to the December 2023 CPI report, price inflation was  3.4 percent on an annual basis. That doesn’t seem too bad. But in reality, prices are rising far faster than the data indicates.
It's Too Early for the Fed to Declare "Mission Accomplished"
At its December meeting, the Federal Reserve effectively declared victory over inflation. 
The Many Implications of the Narrowing Bid-Ask Gap
But the question is that will lead to better price discovery or arm-twisting by investors looking for deals.

Homes Sales Decline in California, Prices Down in LA County
Home prices declined across Los Angeles County in December 2023, mirroring a statewide trend, while statewide homes sales in 2023 experienced their steepest decline since 2007.

California Foreclosure Filings Climb 41% Off Pandemic Era Lows
Is 2023's jump in foreclosure activity a worrisome pattern, or just a bounce off pandemic-era lows?

Wells Fargo Talks Commercial Real Estate’s Woes: ‘It’s A Long Movie'
Wells Fargo is starting to see losses roll in from commercial real estate loans going bad, especially in the troubled office sector, a top executive said.

Markets Are Excited About Rate Cuts. They Might Be Disappointed
Some voices say investors are getting carried away beyond what the Fed is really considering.

The Goldilocks Economy Is a Fairytale
The mainstream psyche has latched onto a Goldilocks scenario where inflation dies, interest rates fall, and the economy glides to a soft landing. People should probably read the end of the story because Goldilocks dies.

New Landlord-Tenant Laws Take Effect In California
Current or upcoming changes include caps on security deposits and credit history restrictions.

$700 Billion Could Default’ In Commercial Real Estate Loans
The lenders are going to have to do things with them. They’re going to be selling. It’s going to be a generational change in real estate coming, end of 2024 and all of 2025. 

Renting Still Less Expensive Than Owning in Nearly All of US
Both rent and housing costs escalated in 2023, but rents are rising faster

Fed Finds Optimism for Future, Grim Reality on the Ground
When it comes down to actual transactions, interest rate levels are still limiting real estate deals.

Commentary: Tamp Down Those Fed Rate Cut Expectations
The markets have priced in five interest rate cuts beginning in spring 2024. The year-end, hoped-for rate would then be 4.6%.

California’s Home Sales Remain Near 16-Year Low
California’s home sales during December remained near the 16-year low reached in November while sales for the full-year 2023 experienced the steepest drop since 2007.

Orange County

Live MLS Link PDF Link

Orange County Closed Sales - MikeLembeck.com

Avg. Cap Rate: 4.47%
Avg. Gross Rent Multiplier: 14.63
7
Closed Sales Last Week
50
Closed Sales - Average Days on Market
$1,699,857
Closed Sales - Average Sales Price
2
Transactions Sold At or Above Asking Price
6
Financed Transactions Last Week
1
All Cash Transactions Last Week
6
2-4 Unit Transactions Last Week
1
5+ Unit Transactions Last Week

16
New Listings Last Week
5
Months of Inventory
148
Total Number of Active Listings
$547,487,979
Active Listings, Dollar Volume
10
Active Under Contract Last Week
3
Pending Listings Last Week
2
Expired Listings Last Week

Southern California

Live MLS Link PDF Link

Southern California Closed Sales - MikeLembeck.com

Avg. Cap Rate: 4.63%
Avg. Gross Rent Multiplier: 14.16
5
Closed Sales Last Week
54
Closed Sales - Average Days on Market
$869,000
Closed Sales - Average Sales Price
2
Transactions Sold At or Above Asking Price
5
Financed Transactions Last Week
0
All Cash Transactions Last Week
4
2-4 Unit Transactions Last Week
1
5+ Unit Transactions Last Week

8
New Listings Last Week
11
Months of Inventory
132
Total Number of Active Listings
$394,735,085
Active Listings, Dollar Volume
1
Active Under Contract Last Week
1
Pending Listings Last Week
3
Expired Listings Last Week

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